Realty World - Homesellers.com

Mortgage loan delinquency rates lowest since 2009

Patrick Carmichael — Thu, 17 May 2012 16:51:00 +0000

The national mortgage delinquency rate (the rate of borrowers 60 or more days past due) declined in the first three months of 2012 to 5.78 percent. This improvement ends two quarters of increases that began in Q3 2011, according to TransUnion.
Prior to Q3 2011, 60-day mortgage delinquency rates had dropped for six consecutive quarters. This latest quarter brings the delinquency rate to its lowest point since Q1 2009.
Between fourth quarter 2011 and first quarter of 2012, all but eight states experienced decreases in their mortgage delinquency rates.
House prices continue to face downward pressure and unemployment remains high, but many see the economic environment beginning to show modest improvement. Therefore, TransUnion’s forecast predicts mortgage delinquency rates to drift downward in 2012 as more homeowners are able to repay their mortgage debt obligations.

Economists say housing outlook continues to slowly brighten

Patrick Carmichael — Thu, 03 May 2012 18:26:00 +0000

Mirroring the uneven economic recovery, the housing market is expected to move in a slow, gradual upward path in 2012, while encountering its share of speed bumps along the road, according to a forecast presented by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) on the housing and economic outlook.
While the latest monthly housing data have shown signs of a slight softening, NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe said this is more reflective of typical month-to-month volatility in the numbers and unusual seasonal factors than they are an indication of any significant downward trend in the broader housing market.
Crowe noted that numerous other fundamentals remain positive for housing at this time, including demographic factors (with pent-up household demand expected to ramp up and echo-boomers heading into their prime household formation ages), historically favorable mortgage rates that are not expected to move higher than 5 percent by the end of next year, more than 100 local markets currently listed on the NAHB/First American Improving Markets Index, and the fact that house price-to-income ratio has now returned to its historical average of about three-to-one versus the nearly five-to-one to which it had previously risen during the height of the housing boom.
However, he cautioned that housing still continues to face formidable challenges of its own — such as rising foreclosures, persistently tight lending standards for home buyers and builders and difficulties in obtaining accurate appraisals. Moreover, disappointing job growth numbers in March and uncertainty in the European economy are undermining prospects for a vigorous recovery.

California pending home sales highest level in nearly three years

Patrick Carmichael — Thu, 26 Apr 2012 21:54:00 +0000

California pending home sales posted higher for the third consecutive month in March, rising from both the previous month and year, the California Association of Realtors reported Tuesday. Additionally, the share of distressed sales dropped for the second consecutive month, as equity sales typically increase with the start of the spring home buying season.
C.A.R.’s Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* rose from a revised 126.5 in February to 143.7 in March, based on signed contracts. The March 2012 index was the highest since April 2009, when the PHSI was 146.9. The index also was up from the 128.9 index recorded in March 2011, marking the eleventh consecutive month that pending sales were higher than the previous year. Pending home sales are forward-looking indicators of future home sales activity, providing information on the future direction of the market.
• The share of equity sales – or non-distressed property sales – compared with total sales increased in March to 55.4, up from 51.1 percent in February. Equity sales made up 50.2 percent of all sales in March 2011.
• Meanwhile, the total share of all distressed property types sold statewide decreased in March to 44.6 percent, down from February’s 48.9 percent and from 49.8 percent in March 2011.
• The share of short sales was down again in March. Of the distressed properties sold statewide in March, 21.1 percent were short sales, down from February’s share of 23 percent but up from last March’s share of 20.1 percent.
• The share of REO sales also declined in March to 23.1 percent, down from February’s 25.2 percent and down from the 29.4 percent recorded in March 2011.

Strategic defaults to continue throughout 2012

Patrick Carmichael — Fri, 20 Apr 2012 01:41:00 +0000

A FICO survey of bank risk professionals found that 46 percent expect the volume of strategic defaults in 2012 to surpass 2011 levels, as more than 25 percent of U.S. homeowners owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth.
Concerns about strategic defaults were also reflected in response to a question about the consumer payment hierarchy. When asked if the current generation of homeowners considers their mortgage to be their most important credit obligation, 49 percent of bankers said no and 29 percent said yes.
Although concerns remain regarding strategic defaults, other signs point to growing stability in the housing market. More respondents (26 percent) expected delinquencies on mortgages to decline in the coming months than at any previous time in the two years FICO has been conducting this survey. Furthermore, 53 percent of respondents said the housing market would improve by the end of 2012, compared with 24 percent who said the market would deteriorate.
More than half of survey respondents (56 percent) expected the supply of credit for residential mortgages to fall short of demand over the next six months. A similar majority (53 percent) expected the supply of credit for mortgage refinancing to fall short of demand, indicating that lenders remain cautious about the risks in the real estate market.

Consumer attitudes toward home buying shift

Patrick Carmichael — Thu, 12 Apr 2012 20:02:00 +0000

More consumers may be looking to purchase homes with a shift in several key housing market indicators, according to Fannie Mae’s March 2012 consumer attitudinal National Housing Survey. More Americans now expect both home rental and home purchase prices to increase over the next year. Nearly half of consumers expect higher rental prices, the highest number recorded since monthly tracking began in June 2010. These trends may be providing Americans with an increased sense of urgency to buy a home as 73 percent of Americans now believe it is a good time to buy a home, up from 70 percent in February.
Highlights of the survey include:
• Thirty-three percent of respondents expect home prices to increase over the next 12 months, a five percentage point increase from last month, the highest level over the past 12 months.
• On average, Americans expect home prices to increase by 0.9 percent over the next 12 months (up slightly since last month).
• Thirty-nine percent of Americans say that mortgage rates will go up in the next 12 months, a five percentage point increase from last month.
• On average, respondents expect home rental prices to increase by 4.1 percent over the next 12 months, a significant increase since February, and the highest number recorded to date.
• Forty-eight percent of respondents think that home rental prices will go up, a three percentage point increase from last month and the highest number recorded to date.
• Sixty-six percent of respondents say they would buy their next home if they were going to move, up one point since last month, while 30 percent say they would rent, up one point versus last month.